Speculative Scenarios
- Kris Murthy
- Oct 31, 2020
- 1 min read
Updated: Jun 29, 2021
This is the best of times, and
this is the worst of times.
Best of times for speculation.
Worst of times for forecasting.
Let us speculate.
A Democrat Sweep.
Just imagine. Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden at the helms?
Pass a $2.2 Trillion Covid-19 relief bill. Pass a More Affordable Health Care Act (MAHA).
Give money to all the State and Local Governments.
Fully subsidize Covid-19 Vaccines.
Relief money to small businesses, poor and elderly, Sanctuary cities and undocumented immigrants.
Increase the minimum wage throughout the country.
Increase taxes.
Statehoods for the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
Fund the U.S. Postal Service.
Happy days are here again. So are inflation, high taxation and economic stagnation.
Forecast-Probability 50%
A 2 to 1 Split.
Democrats control Congress and Presidency
Republicans retain Senate.
Back to Deadlock. More noise, more Partisanship, less action.
Forecast-Probability 30%
A 1 to 2 Split
Incumbent President reelected. God forbid!
Democrats control Congress and Senate.
Congress proposes, Senate endorses and President Vetoes all legislation.
Impeachment Round 2, more polarization, more rhetoric.
Forecast-Probability 10%
A Reverse 2 to 1 Split
Incumbent President reelected.
Senate controlled by Republicans.
Democrats retain control of the Congress.
More conservative judges appointed.
Business as usual. Erratic leadership continues.
Haven't we seen this movie before?
Forecast-Probability 10%
My preferred Scenario
All incumbents to Congress, Senate and Presidency lose
Forecast-Probability 0%
For Free Subscription to see all posts in this Blog- www.murthysmusings.com
Entertaining predictions! However, Kris, I personally don't forsee economic stagnation & inflation under the 1st scenario (A Democratic Sweep). It's a fact that the economy has actually done pretty well under Democratic Presidents. For example, under Bill Clinton, the economy grew at a robust pace, and the federal budget actually had a surplus in two of the years of his presidency (which is the last time it has happened in the past 40 yrs). And although Republicans have traditionally run on a platform of reducing the budget deficit, reality is that the deficits have typically increased under a Republican president (Reagan, Bush, and now Trump).
Under a Biden presidency, higher taxes will only affect those making over $400,000. The vas…
Great predictions especially MAHA (Ha Ha 😂😂)